POV: After a series of less interesting.........>

BOE: POV: After a series of less interesting Inflation Reports, this week's

publication could potentially be key. Betting markets are pricing in more than a

30% probability of a "no deal" Brexit while at the same time other major central

banks are preparing to ease policy as the global trade war intensifies. This

leaves the BoE in a predicament about how best to present its forecasts.

- We think the most likely outcome would be for the BoE to continue to publish

just one central quarterly projection, but argue that using constant rates is

more appropriate than market-based rates, and again continue to condition based

solely on a smooth Brexit outcome. Alongside, a number of potential Brexit

scenarios could be discussed and presented that were short of full quarterly

projections.

- The MPC has as yet not provided any collective guidance on the most likely

policy response in the event of a no deal Brexit. If the Bank removes the health

warning about no automatic policy response and points more blatantly towards a

cut in a no deal outcome whilst also including this in the collective statement,

the market would interpret this as dovish.