### POV, Ahead today's headline.....>

US DATA PREVIEW: ### POV, Ahead today's headline employment data, mean estimates

running +195k vs. whisper of 179k. Take note on the latter: August data has

historically MISSED estimates 19 out of last 20 years! Meanwhile, Sep employ

data misses are also "tilted to the high side too, though not quite as severely

as the 19 to 1 measure in Aug. Over the last 20 yrs, where were 14 overestimates

and 6 underestimates. And over last 10 yrs, it is still 7 to 3 in favor of

overestimates," MNI's Director of US economic data Kevin Kastner notes.

- Markets will likely take a miss in stride, however, with even a significant

miss to the downside (<100K) unlikely to shake current rate hike probability for

September, currently mid- to upper 90% -- though chances of a hike at the Dec

FOMC will certainly moderate from low 70% current.

- Large option holders are better positioned for a break of the 20yr trend, long

downside puts heavy on sheets; flipside: large upside call buying last few wks. 

- Meanwhile, Private payrolls are expected to rise by 190,000. Analysts also

expect average hourly earnings to rise 0.2%, the average workweek to remain at

34.5, and the unemployment rate to fall back slightly to 3.8%.