###POV-ELECTION NIGHT TIMELINE: Focus on the.....>

US: ###POV-ELECTION NIGHT TIMELINE: Focus on the two 'tail risk' scenarios: a

sweep of both chambers by Republicans or Democrats (each about 10-15% prob).

- 2000-2100ET: The Ds can't assure a sweep by this point, but they can lose it.

A clearer picture could begin to emerge for key must-retain Senate seats for

Dems: Missouri, NJ, Indiana, Fla., W Virg., and N Dakota.

- By then we should also have a read on key House races with R incumbents that

Ds will be eyeing, including: Kentucky 6th (polls close 1800ET), NJ 7th, Virg.

2nd/7th/10th, Fla 26nd/27th, Penn 1st, Ohio 1st, Maine 2nd, among many others.

- If the Democrats look to have won all those Senate seats and vast majority of

those House seats, the D Sweep scenario remains in play.

- If not, D House/R Sen 'core' scenario odds have diminished, but still likely.

- But between 2100-2200ET, look for House results out of NY, Minn., Ariz., Colo.

If Dem results are weak, the R Sweep may be on.

- 2200-2300ET probably the moment of truth if it remains close, with results

likely including Ariz., Nev. Senate seats (crucial targets for Ds).

- If Calif races (2300ET-) are closely watched, Ds probably having a poor night.