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### POV: FOCUS TO FALL ON GDP OUTLOOK...........>

RBA
RBA: ### POV: FOCUS TO FALL ON GDP OUTLOOK
Tomorrow's RBA decision is set to provide little in the way of fireworks after
the Bank's recent change in language regarding the outlook for rates, with a
focus on the Bank's view on Wednesday's GDP release in the wake of the partial
releases that it will have at its disposal. All of the 31 economists surveyed by
BBG look for the RBA to leave its cash rate unchanged at 1.50%. The partial
releases that have already hit allude to downside risks to economists' estimates
and have already triggered multiple downgrades in expectations across the major
investment houses. The RBA's SoMP has 0.6% Q/Q pencilled in for Q4 GDP.
- Central scenario: RBA to acknowledge slower domestic economy in Q4, reiterate
cash rate outlook is balanced, with a continued focus on labour market strength.
- Hawkish risk: Little in the way of scope for a hawkish surprise. The RBA could
disappoint by not being dovish enough or place greater emphasis on the recent
de-escalation of the U.S.-China trade spat.
- Dovish risk: Greater worry over the health of the domestic economy on the back
of the GDP partials and/or greater worry over the state of the housing market.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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