###POV: Following the dovish shift at the.......>

ECB: ###POV: Following the dovish shift at the March meeting with the

announcement of TLTRO-III (which came earlier than expected) and extension of

forward interest rate guidance (not widely expected), the bar is high for

further policy innovations at this week's meeting. 

- Neutral Outcome: No new policies are announced and the ECB sticks to script.

Draghi reiterates the downside risks to economic growth, while asserting that

economic activity will rebound. Questions on TLTRO-III modalities and deposit

tiering will come up in the Q&A, but Draghi gives little away.

- Dovish Surprise: The ECB announces the parameters of TLTRO-III and indicates

that discussions on deposit tiering are at an advanced stage. Draghi stresses

that the ECB still has plenty of monetary tools available should the economic

slowdown prove more persistent than currently expected.

- Hawkish Surprise: The ECB indicates that TLTRO-III incentives will not be

overly generous and that it is committed to normalising monetary policy. Draghi

plays up the tentative stabilisation in economic data as being supportive of the

ECB's view that growth will rebound.