POV: Having already announced a decent sized....>

BOE: POV: Having already announced a decent sized easing package and with the

gilt market not appearing to be under undue stress, the pressure on the BoE to

ease further at this week's meeting is limited. However, given the likelihood

that QE is increased in the future to accommodate the large stock of issuance in

the pipeline, the BoE could opt to get ahead of events and announce an expansion

now. At the very least the MPC will indicate a readiness to use all policy

levers at their disposal.

- Baseline scenario: No change in policy, economic growth projections showing a

severe downward revision to economic growth and the MPC indicates that it stands

ready to ease further if necessary

- Dovish scenario: The BoE announces an increase in QE in the order of GBP100bn,

with new economic forecasts showing a contraction similar in magnitude to the

OBRs worst case scenario.

- Hawkish scenario: No change in policy, with the MPC indicating that the

current package is sufficient and new economic forecasts suggest that the

recovery is closer to being V-shaped than U-shaped