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-While the switch may embolden Labour MPs (and cross-party remainers) to vote
against the government, it does little to unite backbenchers who have cited
numerous Lords amendments that, if voted for on June 12th, could force the
government to consider retaining EEA membership and forge a stronger cross-party
resistance to current Brexit plans. As a result, this does little to raise the
possibility of the government losing meaningfully at the bill's passage.
-Yesterday, the opposition Labour Party shifted policy, favouring "full access"
to the EU's Single Market and aiming for the "softest Brexit possible". The
announcement prompted a rally in short-end GBP implied vol and risk reversal
measures as traders saw an increased possibility of the Cabinet softening their
Brexit stance.
-Consequently, the demand seen for GBP upside protection today may be caught
offside. Labour's U-turn does very little, if anything, to make the cabinet's
interpretation of Brexit less likely. RISK: only a vocal climbdown by key
cabinet members will strengthen the 'softest Brexit possible' rhetoric.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |

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