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### POV: No major policy developments are.......>

ECB
ECB: ### POV: No major policy developments are likely at this week's ECB
meeting. Focus will be on the language around the economic outlook and
specifically underlying inflation given Draghi's previously upbeat assessment of
price pressures. The  market will be looking for any clarity on reinvestment
policy and the capital key.
- Hawkish surprise: ECB gives formal announcement of end to the APP. Draghi
reiterates previous statement regarding 'vigorous pickup' in underlying
inflation and hints at policy rate tightening in 2019.
- Neutral: No change to the economic assessment since the September meeting, no
formal announcement on APP and no discussion of reinvestment policy. Draghi does
not restate previous comments on inflation and avoids discussion of Italian
political ructions.
- Dovish surprise: Rather than wait for the next batch of staff macroeconomic
projections, the ECB indicates that risks to the economic outlook have tilted to
the downside and that underlying inflation is relatively subdued. Highlights
risks posed by Italian political situation.

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