### POV: No major policy developments are.......>

ECB: ### POV: No major policy developments are likely at this week's ECB

meeting. Focus will be on the language around the economic outlook and

specifically underlying inflation given Draghi's previously upbeat assessment of

price pressures. The  market will be looking for any clarity on reinvestment

policy and the capital key.

- Hawkish surprise: ECB gives formal announcement of end to the APP. Draghi

reiterates previous statement regarding 'vigorous pickup' in underlying

inflation and hints at policy rate tightening in 2019.

- Neutral: No change to the economic assessment since the September meeting, no

formal announcement on APP and no discussion of reinvestment policy. Draghi does

not restate previous comments on inflation and avoids discussion of Italian

political ructions.

- Dovish surprise: Rather than wait for the next batch of staff macroeconomic

projections, the ECB indicates that risks to the economic outlook have tilted to

the downside and that underlying inflation is relatively subdued. Highlights

risks posed by Italian political situation.