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RBNZ: ### POV: OCR TO REMAIN AT LOW LEVEL
- The RBNZ is widely expected to keep policy rates unchanged Wednesday at 1.75%
with focus on Governor Orr's press conference for clues on future direction.
- Markets will look to see if the Governor provides further two-way guidance on
rate expectations, changes to the projected OCR path will also be monitored.
- Despite the economy being at a point of maximum sustainable employment, rising
wages and a weaker NZ dollar, some analysts see the RBNZ moving to a more dovish
stance with a delay in the 10bps increase from Q3 2019 into 2020.
- Amid a backdrop of rising infln and slowing growth, the RBNZ will likely see
this as offsetting against one another.
- Hawkish risk: Focus on rising RBNZ Sectoral CPI model, bring forward OCR rate
- Neutral: Note firmer infln offset by slowing growth, note more risks ahead.
- Dovish risk: Highlight business/consumer confidence is extremely weak, note
concern on the longer term inflation outlook, acknowledge softer commodity
prices and housing markets.