###POV. October 1 is the pencilled-in date.....>

EGBS: ###POV. October 1 is the pencilled-in date for the Catalan referendum and

we are beginning to see some banks turning cautious on SPGBs. But what parts of

the curve are more susceptible?

- Anne Karina Asbjorn at Nomura writes that there is no big threat from the

referendum but the uncertainty pushes them to suggest a tactical sell SPGB- vs

BTP trade.

- Probably the Catalan referendum worries foreign investors more than domestics

so we looked at the ownership of Spanish bonds to understand pressure points. 

- In May, foreigners owned 47.9% of Spanish debt (BoS), the BoS owned 21.6%,

banks are selling but own 15.7%, insurance 7.4%, Mutual Fund ownership has

plummeted to 2.4% and pensions 1.35%.

- There are no longer statistics on foreign ownership of individual SPGBs but

when stats existed a year ago, foreigners were heavy in more liquid 30Y paper,

15Y nominals and in linkers (but not so much OATei24). They were not present in

higher coupon, shorter maturities. 

- Look into the Catalan issue and then assess trades with ownership in mind.