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RBNZ: ### POV: Orr To Reiterate Next Move In OCR Could Be Up Or Down
- All of those surveyed expect the RBNZ to leave its OCR unchanged at 1.75% at
the end of its Monetary Policy decision on Thursday. As a result focus will
quickly move to the accompanying statement and language employed within.
- Headline ANZ business confidence remains deep in -ve territory, despite the
uptick in the latest reading, while investment intentions slid further. This
should mean that the RBNZ re-deploys its forward guidance i.e. "the direction of
our next OCR move could be up or down," when it issues it latest monetary policy
decision, in spite of the stronger than exp. NZ Q2 GDP data.
- Central View: RBNZ delivers balanced to marginally dovish statement
highlighting that "the direction of our next OCR move could be up or down."
- Hawkish Risk: Positive take on Q2 GDP, paying attention to the fact that one
off matters played less of a part in the reading than exp, while the headline
beat the RBNZ's expectations (unlikely as Q2 business investment fell Q/Q).
- Dovish Risk: Increased focus on biz confidence/investment intentions since the
new gov't came into power, one of the key downside risks the RBNZ has flagged.