### POV: Orr To Reiterate Next Move In OCR.....>

RBNZ: ### POV: Orr To Reiterate Next Move In OCR Could Be Up Or Down

- All of those surveyed expect the RBNZ to leave its OCR unchanged at 1.75% at

the end of its Monetary Policy decision on Thursday. As a result focus will

quickly move to the accompanying statement and language employed within.

- Headline ANZ business confidence remains deep in -ve territory, despite the

uptick in the latest reading, while investment intentions slid further. This

should mean that the RBNZ re-deploys its forward guidance i.e. "the direction of

our next OCR move could be up or down," when it issues it latest monetary policy

decision, in spite of the stronger than exp. NZ Q2 GDP data.

- Central View: RBNZ delivers balanced to marginally dovish statement

highlighting that "the direction of our next OCR move could be up or down."

- Hawkish Risk: Positive take on Q2 GDP, paying attention to the fact that one

off matters played less of a part in the reading than exp, while the headline

beat the RBNZ's expectations (unlikely as Q2 business investment fell Q/Q).

- Dovish Risk: Increased focus on biz confidence/investment intentions since the

new gov't came into power, one of the key downside risks the RBNZ has flagged.