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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI ASIA OPEN: Early Geopol Risk Roils, Focus Turns To Fed
MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS: South Korea Rescinds Martial Law
### POV: RBNZ SECTORAL CPI MAY LIMIT....>
AUSSIE-KIWI: ### POV: RBNZ SECTORAL CPI MAY LIMIT UPSIDE IN AUD/NZD
The RBNZ's Q2 sectoral factor CPI model hit a 7-Year high of 1.7% Y/Y in Q2,
prompting the NZ/AU 2-Year IR swap differential to reverse course from the cycle
low, which could cap AUD/NZD.
- The recent move higher in AUD/NZD has been driven by the potential for MonPol
divergence between the RBA and RBNZ, with RBNZ Gov. Orr bringing a dovish tinge
to statements since assuming the role, by introducing the possibility of an OCR
cut to the RBNZ statements. The sectoral CPI release could alter the broader
view on the NZD (CFTC data shows a notable net short position in NZD).
- TECHNICALS: The pair failed to take out the 30 Jan low (NZ$1.1010) on its
recent move higher, which provides the key resistance point going forwards.
- RISKS: A strong AU CPI release, further questions over NZ growth; RBNZ
rhetoric playing down the uptick in its CPI model; the RBA building on the
reinstatement of the line that the next move in the cash rate would likely be
up, rather than down, in the mins of the July MonPol meeting; nearby tech
support at the 200-DMA (NZ$1.0861), which held on Tuesday.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.