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CANADA
CANADA: ### POV/RESEND: BOC STEADY ON WITH TIFF MACKLEM AT HELM 
The Bank of Canada is expected to keep its target rate on hold at 0.25%
Wednesday, incoming governor Tiff Macklem to provide more clarity on future
policy and path of recovery. Announcement accompanied by Monetary Policy Report.
- Base Case: Steady as she goes as the state of the Canadian economy remains in
a recession due to the COVID-19 virus pandemic. Majority of analysts see the
target rate at zero for a year or more, while conceding pandemic driven
uncertainty may spur additional measures. Goldman Sachs said Macklem strikes a
"more negative tone on the recovery" than Poloz while emphasizing the BOC "has
plenty of stimulus tools it is willing and able to use."
- Dovish: Cutting the target rate to negative levels remains unlikely, a
scenario only in case of emergency analysts agree. Any additional methods of
easing, if necessary, include increased quantitative easing, conditional yield
curve control and/or upgrade to large scale asset purchases (LSAPS).
- Hawkish: Raising rates remains a non-option for the foreseeable future, CIBC
rate hike call second half of 2022.

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