### POV/RESEND: BOC STEADY ON WITH TIFF......>

CANADA: ### POV/RESEND: BOC STEADY ON WITH TIFF MACKLEM AT HELM 

The Bank of Canada is expected to keep its target rate on hold at 0.25%

Wednesday, incoming governor Tiff Macklem to provide more clarity on future

policy and path of recovery. Announcement accompanied by Monetary Policy Report.

- Base Case: Steady as she goes as the state of the Canadian economy remains in

a recession due to the COVID-19 virus pandemic. Majority of analysts see the

target rate at zero for a year or more, while conceding pandemic driven

uncertainty may spur additional measures. Goldman Sachs said Macklem strikes a

"more negative tone on the recovery" than Poloz while emphasizing the BOC "has

plenty of stimulus tools it is willing and able to use."

- Dovish: Cutting the target rate to negative levels remains unlikely, a

scenario only in case of emergency analysts agree. Any additional methods of

easing, if necessary, include increased quantitative easing, conditional yield

curve control and/or upgrade to large scale asset purchases (LSAPS).

- Hawkish: Raising rates remains a non-option for the foreseeable future, CIBC

rate hike call second half of 2022.