### POV: UK ANALYSIS - Unemployment Rate In......>

UK: ### POV: UK ANALYSIS - Unemployment Rate In Line to Fall to 4.4%

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-If 101,500 workers (MNI Median, q/q) were added to the labour force in the 3m

to June, a 64k drop in the number of those unemployed would be needed to push

the unemployment rate down to 4.4% (it fell by 63k in May and has averaged -42k

over the last 6m). 

-Of the 14 analysts polled in a MNI survey, exactly half saw the jobless rate

falling to 4.4% with the other half expecting it to remain at 4.5%, the lowest

level since 1975.

-Absent a material, upward change in the complementary earnings data, however, a

fall in the jobless rate below the Bank's estimate of NAIRU would struggle to

aid the case for a rate hike as real earnings remains in sub-zero territory.