### POV, With over 3 weeks until the next.......>

FED: ### POV, With over 3 weeks until the next FOMC meeting (12/13), markets are

pricing in near certainty (98.5%) of a rate hike at the final policy

announcement of 2017 (MNI PINCH model). With Fed pundits and prognosticators

calling for three to four more hikes in 2018, how are OIS markets pricing in

next year's expectations at the moment? Probability for another hike at the

March 21 FOMC currently 58.9%, June 13 FOMC at 49.5%, while chance for a third

quarterly hike at the September 26 FOMC fall to appr 40%. Still ample

opportunity for relative speculative accounts to invest in downside insurance if

so convicted of three to four more hikes next year, especially with real and

implied vol at current levels. The bigger question and harder to price is

whether the US (and lesser degree, Global) economies continue to chug along?

Lots to think about over the Thanksgiving holiday.