### POV: WORST COULD BE STILL TO COME FOR....>

AUSSIE: ### POV: WORST COULD BE STILL TO COME FOR AUD

-While AUD is comfortably the poorest performer Wednesday, the currency is

strictly mid-table on a month-to-date and year-to-date basis among its G10

counterparts. Options market pricing sees a decent chance of AUD/USD touching

the $0.68 handle in the coming three months (41.4%), which runs counter to

analyst forecasts, which continue to eye a recovery to around $0.7175 on a

three-month horizon.

-Following disappointing GDP figures overnight, a small number of analysts have

switched their call to forecast rate cuts as soon as July, but this is far from

market consensus: OIS pricing sees just a 42% chance of a 25bps cut taking place

by the July RBA meeting.

-Four of the five most profitable trading strategies for AUD/USD over the past

12 months continue to recommend holding short positions. This includes the

William's %R strategy, the most successful trading indicator since March last

year, which triggered its most recent winning short signal on March 1st.