Powell Opening Comments: More Dovish Policy Tilt Than Official Statement

Powell's press conference went a small step beyond the Statement in suggesting that a September rate cut could be, in the Chair's words in the Q&A, "on the table".

• First, Powell's opening prepared press conference statement (see changes vs June in PDF link here) - which is perhaps underrated vs the FOMC Statement in terms of policy signals - clearly nodded to greater "confidence" in inflation returning to 2% while emphasizing rising downside risks to employment.
• His opening paragraph removed the statement that inflation "is still too high", and also took out "continued strong job gains". "We are attentive to risks to both sides of our dual mandate" was a new addition, echoing the Statement's changes.
• In reiterating the forward guidance re "greater confidence", he eliminated the sentence "So far this year, the data have not given us that greater confidence", adding that the 2Q inflation readings have "added to our confidence", and "more good data would strengthen that confidence".
• Overall he went a little further on the dovish side than did the prepared Statement, which didn't change the forward rate guidance.