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Powell Opening Statement Continues

FED
  • Labor market conditions continued to improve. Demand for labor is very strong and job gains +750k avg per month over past 3 months. In August, however, gains slowed markedly with a slowdown concentrated in sectors sensitive to the pandemic. 5.2% unemp rate understates the shortfall in employment (EPOP).
  • Factors related to the pandemic such as caregiving and ongoing virus fears appear to be weighing on employment growth and should lessen alongside virus containment. We project the labor market to improve to 2024.
  • As the economy continues to reopen and spending rebounds, we are seeing upward pressure on prices particularly because supply bottlenecks in some areas have limited how quickly production can respond in the near term.
  • Bottleneck effects have been larger and longer lasting than anticipated, leading to larger inflation projections for this year. While the supply effects are prominent for now, they will abate, as they do, inflation is expected to drop back toward the longer run goal.
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