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UK: Week Ahead

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Powell Questioned On Calibrating Rates Against Rates Of Inflation

FED
  • Q: Are you calibrating rates against the rates of inflation you are seeing, as opposed to supporting the economy?
  • A: Nothing quite that mechanical is happening. Since September, the expectations for inflation have come down significantly. We've had several labor market reports suggest it's coming back into better balance. You ask about real rates - that's something we're very conscious of, but really broader financial conditions matter, and it's hard to know where the real rate is at any given time, you can't follow it like a rule. If you look at the projections, the expectation is that the real rate is declining as we move forward.
  • One of the things we're moving carefully on is whether we've done enough. No one is writing down rate hikes, but don't want to take a hike off the table. But a hike is not the base case anymore as it was 60-90 days ago.
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