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Powell Reiterates Taper Timeline But Doesn't Push Back Against Hike Pricing

FED

Fed Chair Powell's comments at a SARB event today suggests his stance doesn't seem to have changed significantly in recent weeks despite a surge in market rate hike pricing.

  • He said the Fed is "on track" to begin and complete the taper by mid-2022.
  • Sees inflation pressures as transitory, though likely to last longer than had previously been expected, with supply constraints lasting well into next year; risks are clearly now to longer and more persistent, too high inflation; they have the tools to deal with persistent inflation if necessary. On the dovish side, says job growth could take later than they previously thought, and noting that a winter COVID spike can't be ruled out.
  • Powell didn't express concern over / push back significantly on very hawkish market rate repricing in the past couple of weeks. He only went so far as to say it would be "premature" to raise rates, but of course the question is about liftoff timing and hike pace, not whether they are going to start now.
  • Powell said he thought Fed policy is in "a good place" and that he thought "the market generally understands where we are" so while "not blessing every asset price", feels taper communications have avoided a "taper tantrum so far". So, not really pushing back much on market rate pricing in that regard.

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