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Powell, Second Verse Same as the First

US TSYS SUMMARY

Rates trade weaker after the bell, well off lows to near middle of the session range, perhaps ironically as equities trimmed gains under heavier late session selling.

Futures held mildly weaker levels in shorts to intermediates post-Import/export index data.
  • Data was not expected to be a market mover, however, focus on headline risk over Fed-speak: vaccine-centric with safety of other jab-makers evaluated after J&J blood clot news Tue; geopolitical on Russia/US tensions related to former's troop buildup on Ukraine border.
  • Several Fed speakers on day included Chairman Powell: No market reaction to Fed Chair's comments during Washington Economic Club virtual event, Tsys holding near recent lows, yld curves steeper. Economy at a bit of inflection point, going into period of faster growth and higher job creation; risk to improvement -- spike in virus mutations. Too much focus on dot plot and not enough outcome based. Three outcomes / goals need to be met: labor market recovery, inflation stable at 2% (not temporary), moving above 2%. Late Fed VC Clarida: "policy will not tighten solely because the unemployment rate has fallen below any particular econometric estimate of its long-run natural level."
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 0.2bps at 0.161%, 5-Yr is up 2.1bps at 0.8564%, 10-Yr is up 2bps at 1.6341%, and 30-Yr is up 2.9bps at 2.3232%.

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