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Powell Sees Factors Negatively Impacted Employment Growth Waning

FED
  • Conditions in the labor market have continued to improve, though the pace of improvement has been uneven. Employment rose 419,000/month on average in April and May, with the leisure and hospitality sector continuing to post notable gains.
  • The employment in this sector and the economy as a whole remain well below prepandemic levels. The unemp rate remained elevated in May at 5.8% and this figure understates the shortfall in employment, particularly as participation in the labor market has not moved up from the low rates for most of the last year.[Names factors incl unemp insurance, fears of virus, caregiving needs] that are weighing on employment growth, "should wane in coming months against the backdrop of rising vaccinations, leading to a more rapid gains in employment."
  • FOMC projects the labor market to continue to improve with the median projection for the unemployment rate standing at 4.5% at the end of this year, and decline to 3.5% by the end of 2023.
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