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FED: Powell Testimony Eyed For Takes On Latest Jobs And CPI Data

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Fed Chair Powell is due to deliver testimony on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress on Feb 11-12, starting with the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on Tuesday (1000ET/1500GMT), and to the House Committee on Financial Services on Wednesday (also 1000ET/1500GMT). 

  • These don't always result in market-moving comments but often do, with the previous testimony in July for example seeing a dovish reaction to Powell's remark that "it doesn't seem likely" that the FOMC's next move would be a hike.
  • The Fed is in data-dependent mode as it decides when and indeed if to cut rates further, so we will be looking for Powell's first reactions to the January employment report, which showed substantial historical revisions alongside a lower unemployment rate and greater wage pressures, and the January CPI report which is released shortly before his House session.
  • Powell's also likely to receive questions on the future path of policy rates and how the FOMC will react to shifts in fiscal and trade policy, but with the occasion calling for an even more apolitical take than usual, he is likely to be evasive (as he said in January: "this is no different than any other set of policy changes at the beginning of an administration...we'll patiently watch and understand and kind of not be in a hurry to get to a place of understanding what our policy response should be until we see how it plays out.")
  • He's likely to reiterate in some form that "we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance", with policy "well-positioned" to address developments as they arise, though once again we will be interested in how he characterizes the current degree of policy restrictiveness (Powell in January: "not highly restrictive, but meaningfully restrictive").
  • There is no publicly known time for the publication of Powell's prepared remarks for his testimony before the Senate committee at 1000ET.
  • More often than not, though, the text is released at the time the testimony session is scheduled to begin, particularly when the Senate appearance comes the day before the House appearance. That is the case on February 11, and was the case at the previous testimony in July.
  • The published Semi-Annual report was released Friday, available here (PDF link)
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Fed Chair Powell is due to deliver testimony on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress on Feb 11-12, starting with the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on Tuesday (1000ET/1500GMT), and to the House Committee on Financial Services on Wednesday (also 1000ET/1500GMT). 

  • These don't always result in market-moving comments but often do, with the previous testimony in July for example seeing a dovish reaction to Powell's remark that "it doesn't seem likely" that the FOMC's next move would be a hike.
  • The Fed is in data-dependent mode as it decides when and indeed if to cut rates further, so we will be looking for Powell's first reactions to the January employment report, which showed substantial historical revisions alongside a lower unemployment rate and greater wage pressures, and the January CPI report which is released shortly before his House session.
  • Powell's also likely to receive questions on the future path of policy rates and how the FOMC will react to shifts in fiscal and trade policy, but with the occasion calling for an even more apolitical take than usual, he is likely to be evasive (as he said in January: "this is no different than any other set of policy changes at the beginning of an administration...we'll patiently watch and understand and kind of not be in a hurry to get to a place of understanding what our policy response should be until we see how it plays out.")
  • He's likely to reiterate in some form that "we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance", with policy "well-positioned" to address developments as they arise, though once again we will be interested in how he characterizes the current degree of policy restrictiveness (Powell in January: "not highly restrictive, but meaningfully restrictive").
  • There is no publicly known time for the publication of Powell's prepared remarks for his testimony before the Senate committee at 1000ET.
  • More often than not, though, the text is released at the time the testimony session is scheduled to begin, particularly when the Senate appearance comes the day before the House appearance. That is the case on February 11, and was the case at the previous testimony in July.
  • The published Semi-Annual report was released Friday, available here (PDF link)