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POWER: France Flips Back to Discount to Germany

POWER
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Day-ahead power prices in France and Germany diverged significantly, with France seeing sharp declines, fuelled by strong wind generation from the previous day, with stable nuclear output offsetting only a modest rise in domestic power demand. In contrast, German prices rose as wind generation dropped and power consumption increased.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €119.99/MWh from €112.75/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €82.06/MWh from €114.24/MWh on the previous day.
  • France flipped to a €37.93/MWh discount from a €1.49/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to fall on the day to 23.09GW on Wednesday – revised up by around 0.418GW – from 23.59GW on Tuesday. Looking ahead, wind is expected to increase sharply to 29.99GW the next day – which could weigh on delivery costs.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to edge up on the day to 60.62GW on Wednesday from 60.41GW on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. Demand will then be at 61.39GW on 28 Nov – which could place upward pressure on costs.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to rise sharply on the day at 9.16GW, or 46% load factor on Wednesday from 4.85GW, or a 24% load factor on Tuesday. Wind will then be at 2.20GW, or an 11% load factor on 28 Nov – which could support delivery prices from the previous session.
  • French power demand is also expected to rise on the day tomorrow to be at 56.43GW compared to 55.89GW estimated for today. Demand will then be at 58.63GW the next day.
  • Nuclear availability in France was at 80% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, unchanged on the day, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • However, EdF’s 915MW St.Laurent 2 nuke is now expected to return on 27 November from the 26 November as previously estimated, latest Remit data show.
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Day-ahead power prices in France and Germany diverged significantly, with France seeing sharp declines, fuelled by strong wind generation from the previous day, with stable nuclear output offsetting only a modest rise in domestic power demand. In contrast, German prices rose as wind generation dropped and power consumption increased.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €119.99/MWh from €112.75/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €82.06/MWh from €114.24/MWh on the previous day.
  • France flipped to a €37.93/MWh discount from a €1.49/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to fall on the day to 23.09GW on Wednesday – revised up by around 0.418GW – from 23.59GW on Tuesday. Looking ahead, wind is expected to increase sharply to 29.99GW the next day – which could weigh on delivery costs.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to edge up on the day to 60.62GW on Wednesday from 60.41GW on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. Demand will then be at 61.39GW on 28 Nov – which could place upward pressure on costs.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to rise sharply on the day at 9.16GW, or 46% load factor on Wednesday from 4.85GW, or a 24% load factor on Tuesday. Wind will then be at 2.20GW, or an 11% load factor on 28 Nov – which could support delivery prices from the previous session.
  • French power demand is also expected to rise on the day tomorrow to be at 56.43GW compared to 55.89GW estimated for today. Demand will then be at 58.63GW the next day.
  • Nuclear availability in France was at 80% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, unchanged on the day, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • However, EdF’s 915MW St.Laurent 2 nuke is now expected to return on 27 November from the 26 November as previously estimated, latest Remit data show.