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POWER: France Sept Extends Monday’s Rally

POWER

The French September power base-load contract is edging higher, extending Monday’s gains, to the highest since 24 May, with latest forecast suggesting warmer weather at the end of August/early-September. 

  • The latest 6-10 days ECMWF for Paris suggested mean temperatures to rise from below normal to above normal on 23-24 August, after which temperatures will decrease again. Mean temps will rise back above the seasonal normal from 27 August. In the south, Marseille, forecasts for max temperatures have been revised lower to reach around 32C during the forecast period. 
  • In France, nuclear availability rose to 73% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, up from 67% the day before, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • Planned maintenance at 1.31GW Golfech 2 has been extended by one week to 2 September. 
  • In France, wind output is forecast to decline to 2.99GW during base load on Wednesday, down from 4.56GW forecast for Tuesday. Solar PV is forecast slightly higher on Wednesday at 4.56GW during base load, up from 4.3GW forecast for Tuesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Power demand in France is forecast at a peak of 48.21GW Tuesday and of 49.02GW on Wednesday, Entso-E data showed. 
  • French net exports to Germany are scheduled at 2.47GW on Tuesday, at 1.58GW to Belgium, at 2.86GW to Italy and at 1.88GW to Switzerland, Entso-E data showed. 
  • TTF front month is still holding within the €38.5/MWh to €40.45/MWh range seen since Aug. 13 as gas storage approaches EU target levels to help offset ongoing supply sensitivity ahead of the Norwegian maintenance season.
    • France Base Power SEP 24 up 0.6% at 75.1 EUR/MWh
    • EUA DEC 24 up 0.4% at 73.46 EUR/MT
    • TTF Gas SEP 24 down 0.2% at 39.76 EUR/MWh
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