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POWER: French, German Higher on Week Amid Rising On-Week Demand

POWER
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German and French day-ahead base-load contracts fell on the day due to reduced power demand over the weekend and increased wind generation. However, delivery costs were higher compared to the previous week, driven by higher on-week demand.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €56.37/MWh from €95.20/MWh in the previous day. But slightly higher compared to €54.90/MWh for delivery on 5 Oct (also a Saturday)
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €50.06/MWh from €87.27/MWh in the previous day. But also higher than the clearing price of €24.66/MWh for 5 Oct.
  • No negative hourly power prices were recorded in both countries for any delivery hours.
  • German wind output is forecast at 13.55GW on Saturday (12 Oct), sharply up compared to 3.26GW that was forecast for 5 Oct (Sat last week). Wind is expected at 32.56GW on 13 Oct before dropping to 6.94GW on 14 Oct – which could support gains made from a rise in demand.
  • German power demand is forecast to average between 45.05-47.04GW over 12-13 Oct higher than forecasts last week at 42.8-44.9GW over 5-6 Oct. But down from 53.7GW forecast for today. Demand will then increase to around 55GW over 15-16 Oct.
  • In contrast, French wind output is forecast at a 23% load factor, or 4.58GW for 12 Oct, up from 3.81GW estimated for 5 Oct (last week Sat). Wind will drop to a 15% load factor on Sunday and remain at around this level on 14 Oct.
  • French power demand is forecast at 41.5-44GW over 12-13 Oct, up compared 41-42GW over 5-6 Oct but also down from demand estimated today. Demand will then increase to around 46.8GW on 14 Oct.
  • Nuclear availability in France was at 69% as of Friday morning, down from 71% on Thursday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg. 
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German and French day-ahead base-load contracts fell on the day due to reduced power demand over the weekend and increased wind generation. However, delivery costs were higher compared to the previous week, driven by higher on-week demand.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €56.37/MWh from €95.20/MWh in the previous day. But slightly higher compared to €54.90/MWh for delivery on 5 Oct (also a Saturday)
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €50.06/MWh from €87.27/MWh in the previous day. But also higher than the clearing price of €24.66/MWh for 5 Oct.
  • No negative hourly power prices were recorded in both countries for any delivery hours.
  • German wind output is forecast at 13.55GW on Saturday (12 Oct), sharply up compared to 3.26GW that was forecast for 5 Oct (Sat last week). Wind is expected at 32.56GW on 13 Oct before dropping to 6.94GW on 14 Oct – which could support gains made from a rise in demand.
  • German power demand is forecast to average between 45.05-47.04GW over 12-13 Oct higher than forecasts last week at 42.8-44.9GW over 5-6 Oct. But down from 53.7GW forecast for today. Demand will then increase to around 55GW over 15-16 Oct.
  • In contrast, French wind output is forecast at a 23% load factor, or 4.58GW for 12 Oct, up from 3.81GW estimated for 5 Oct (last week Sat). Wind will drop to a 15% load factor on Sunday and remain at around this level on 14 Oct.
  • French power demand is forecast at 41.5-44GW over 12-13 Oct, up compared 41-42GW over 5-6 Oct but also down from demand estimated today. Demand will then increase to around 46.8GW on 14 Oct.
  • Nuclear availability in France was at 69% as of Friday morning, down from 71% on Thursday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.