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POWER: German Day-Ahead Climbs to 10-Session High

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The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts rose sharply on the day amid forecasts for a drop in wind. Higher demand from the German public holiday also supported prices, with below normal temps still forecasts - pushing Germany’s day-ahead to the highest since 22 Sept.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €96.13/MWh from €72.66/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €88.42/MWh from €57.64/MWh on the previous day.
  • The hourly prices in Germany reached as high as €149.02/MWh for hour 19-20, In comparison, the cleared price in France for the same hour was at €137.24/MWh.
  • German wind is expected at 8.35GW, or a 13% load factor on 4 Oct – down from around 13.5GW anticipated at the same time today. Wind be at around 3.06GW the next day – which may limit losses made by lower demand.
  • German power demand is anticipated at about 52.13GW – higher than demand forecasts for today of 49GW (due to a public holiday). Demand will then drop to about 43-45GWGW over the weekend – likely weighing on the day ahead.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF temperature forecast has been mostly unchanged on the day, with average temps at 10.55C on 4 Oct – down compared to the seasonal norm of 12C for the same day. Temperatures are still set to flip above from 7 Oct.
  • In France, wind forecast points to output at around 3.5GW on 3 Oct, almost halving from the previous day, with wind at 3.7GW the next day – likely further adding downward pressure on delivery costs from lower demand.
  • Demand is also expected higher on the day at 48.5GW compared to 47.6GW on 3 Oct, with consumption then expected to fall between 41-44GW over the weekend.
  • And Nuclear availability in France has increased to 71% as of Thursday morning, up from 68% of capacity on Wednesday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg. 
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The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts rose sharply on the day amid forecasts for a drop in wind. Higher demand from the German public holiday also supported prices, with below normal temps still forecasts - pushing Germany’s day-ahead to the highest since 22 Sept.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €96.13/MWh from €72.66/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €88.42/MWh from €57.64/MWh on the previous day.
  • The hourly prices in Germany reached as high as €149.02/MWh for hour 19-20, In comparison, the cleared price in France for the same hour was at €137.24/MWh.
  • German wind is expected at 8.35GW, or a 13% load factor on 4 Oct – down from around 13.5GW anticipated at the same time today. Wind be at around 3.06GW the next day – which may limit losses made by lower demand.
  • German power demand is anticipated at about 52.13GW – higher than demand forecasts for today of 49GW (due to a public holiday). Demand will then drop to about 43-45GWGW over the weekend – likely weighing on the day ahead.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF temperature forecast has been mostly unchanged on the day, with average temps at 10.55C on 4 Oct – down compared to the seasonal norm of 12C for the same day. Temperatures are still set to flip above from 7 Oct.
  • In France, wind forecast points to output at around 3.5GW on 3 Oct, almost halving from the previous day, with wind at 3.7GW the next day – likely further adding downward pressure on delivery costs from lower demand.
  • Demand is also expected higher on the day at 48.5GW compared to 47.6GW on 3 Oct, with consumption then expected to fall between 41-44GW over the weekend.
  • And Nuclear availability in France has increased to 71% as of Thursday morning, up from 68% of capacity on Wednesday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.