POWER: German Day-Ahead Drops from High, France Remains Firm

The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts diverged, with Germany dropping sharply from its serval month high in the previous session, with France remaining relatively unchanged on the day. The FR-DE discount could narrow further over the next two days amid comparatively higher German wind load factors.

• The German day-ahead spot settled at €125.84/MWh from €158.39/MWh on the previous day.
• The French day-ahead spot cleared at €104.69/MWh from €104.22/MWh on the previous day.
• FR-DE discount was at €21.15/MWh from €54.17/MWh discount in the previous session.
• German wind is expected at just 3.58GW, or a 6% load factor on 4 September and is expected to rise sharply to be between 25-30% load factors, or 15.9-19.6GW over 5-6 September – opening the door to the possibility of much lower power prices on the day and narrowing the DE-FR premium.
• German power demand over 4-5 September has been revised up, with the highest revision seen on 4 September at +292MW. Demand is expected between 53.7-54.2GW over the period.
• In France, wind forecast points to output at 1.73GW, or a 9% load factor on 4 September and will rise between 11-12% load factor over the next two days.
• French nuclear availability rose to 73% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, up from 71% on Monday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
• EdF has started its Tricastin 3 nuclear unit but has extended works at its Bugey 4, Blayais 1 and Gravelines 4 reactors.