POWER
German front-month clean spark spreads for a 55%-efficient gas-fired plant are improving today, with strong German December power gains amid cold weather and a downward revision in wind output forecast, while gas prices are edging only slightly higher.
- German December clean spark spreads for a 55%-efficient gas plant are currently trading at -1.57€/MWh, the highest since 17 January according to MNI calculations.
- German front-month clean spark spreads for a 55%-efficient plant averaged -8.3€/MWh so far this month.
- In contrast, German December clean dark spreads for a 40%-efficient plant have also improved but are still at -10.56€/MWh as of the time of writing according to MNI calculations – the highest so far this year but still well behind gas in the merit order, with a rebound in EU carbon allowances.
- German CDS for a 40%-efficient plant averaged -19.72€/MWh so far this month.
- German front-month power has rallied to the highest since October 2023 today, with support from a downward revision in wind output, higher heating demand due to cold weather, higher carbon allowances and sustained high EU gas prices.
- TTF front month has recovered some of the earlier losses that were driven by continued Russian pipeline gas supplies to Europe despite a cut in supplies to Austria’s OMV on Nov. 16. Colder weather this week and strong storage withdrawals remain supportive.
- EU ETS Dec24 has extended gains throughout the session today, likely receiving support from expectations from higher fossil-fuel output amid a downward revision in NW Europe wind output forecasts and increased heating demand.
- Germany Base Power DEC 24 up 4.8% at 109.79 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 24 up 2.4% at 69.65 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas DEC 24 up 0.2% at 46.655 EUR/MWh
- Rotterdam Coal DEC 24 up 0.9% at 126.35 USD/MT
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