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POWER: German, France Day-Ahead Soar on Lower Wind, Higher Demand

POWER
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The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts rose sharply on the day amid forecasts for a drop in wind. Higher demand also supported prices owing to below normal temps. France’s day ahead hit the highest since 3 Sept.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €95.86/MWh from €67.84/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €90.43/MWh from €62.57/MWh on the previous day. This is the highest day ahead price since 3 Sept.
  • The hourly prices in Germany reached as high as €135.70/MWh for hour 08-09 up from €114.98/MWh for the same hour in the previous session.
  • In comparison, the cleared price in France for the same hour was at €124.24/MWh.
  • German wind is expected at 16.46GW, or a 25% load factor on 2 Oct – down from around 21.7GW anticipated today. Wind will remain at around 16GW the next day – which may keep delivery costs at similar levels.
  • German power demand has been slightly revised up for 2 Oct at about 56.16GW – higher than demand forecasts for today. Demand will then drop to about 49.2GW on 3 Oct – possibly weighing on the day ahead.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast has been broadly unchanged on the day with mean temperatures in Berlin, with forecast to remain below normal until 6 October before rising above the average to reach as high as 17C on 8 Oct.
  • In France, wind forecast points to output at around 4.01GW on 2 Oct, with wind at 6GW the next day – likely keeping gains somewhat limited on the day.
  • Demand is also expected higher on the day at 46.2GW compared to 45.5GW on 1 Oct, with consumption then expected to increase to 47.7GW on 3 Oct.
  • And Nuclear availability in France has increased to 70% as of Tuesday morning, up from 69% of capacity on Monday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
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The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts rose sharply on the day amid forecasts for a drop in wind. Higher demand also supported prices owing to below normal temps. France’s day ahead hit the highest since 3 Sept.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €95.86/MWh from €67.84/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €90.43/MWh from €62.57/MWh on the previous day. This is the highest day ahead price since 3 Sept.
  • The hourly prices in Germany reached as high as €135.70/MWh for hour 08-09 up from €114.98/MWh for the same hour in the previous session.
  • In comparison, the cleared price in France for the same hour was at €124.24/MWh.
  • German wind is expected at 16.46GW, or a 25% load factor on 2 Oct – down from around 21.7GW anticipated today. Wind will remain at around 16GW the next day – which may keep delivery costs at similar levels.
  • German power demand has been slightly revised up for 2 Oct at about 56.16GW – higher than demand forecasts for today. Demand will then drop to about 49.2GW on 3 Oct – possibly weighing on the day ahead.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast has been broadly unchanged on the day with mean temperatures in Berlin, with forecast to remain below normal until 6 October before rising above the average to reach as high as 17C on 8 Oct.
  • In France, wind forecast points to output at around 4.01GW on 2 Oct, with wind at 6GW the next day – likely keeping gains somewhat limited on the day.
  • Demand is also expected higher on the day at 46.2GW compared to 45.5GW on 1 Oct, with consumption then expected to increase to 47.7GW on 3 Oct.
  • And Nuclear availability in France has increased to 70% as of Tuesday morning, up from 69% of capacity on Monday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.