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POWER: German Leads Losses on Higher Wind

POWER
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The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts both declined, with Germany moving down at a quicker pace amid higher wind load factors on the day, with the FR-DE discount narrowing to a two-session low.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €75.14/MWh from €91.77/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €42.32/MWh from €54.14/MWh on the previous day.
  • France as at a €32.82/MWh discount to Germany from €37.63/MWh.
  • German wind is expected at 18.79GW, or a 29% load factor on 25 September – up compared to 12.8GW today – and will rise the next day to a 30% load factor – which could keep weight on prices. And over 27-28 Sept wind will be at 36-42% load factors.
  • German power demand over 25-26 Sept is anticipated between 54.6-55.1GW up compared to 53.8GW anticipated for 24 Sept, with demand remaining firm on 27 Sept at 54GW.
  • In Berlin, mean temps are expected to begin falling from 27 Sept to drop below the norm of around 11C over 28 Sept-2 Oct.
  • In France, wind forecast point to output at 6.52GW, or a 33% load factor on 25 Sept, rising slightly on the day, before being at 46-58% load factors over the next two days – likely dropping costs further and leading to some negative hourly power prices.
  • French nuclear availability was stable on the day at 73% as of Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • Avg temperatures in Paris are anticipated to follow a similar trend as Berlin – dropping below the norm of about 13C on 27 September to reach as low as 9C on 29 Sept.
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The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts both declined, with Germany moving down at a quicker pace amid higher wind load factors on the day, with the FR-DE discount narrowing to a two-session low.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €75.14/MWh from €91.77/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €42.32/MWh from €54.14/MWh on the previous day.
  • France as at a €32.82/MWh discount to Germany from €37.63/MWh.
  • German wind is expected at 18.79GW, or a 29% load factor on 25 September – up compared to 12.8GW today – and will rise the next day to a 30% load factor – which could keep weight on prices. And over 27-28 Sept wind will be at 36-42% load factors.
  • German power demand over 25-26 Sept is anticipated between 54.6-55.1GW up compared to 53.8GW anticipated for 24 Sept, with demand remaining firm on 27 Sept at 54GW.
  • In Berlin, mean temps are expected to begin falling from 27 Sept to drop below the norm of around 11C over 28 Sept-2 Oct.
  • In France, wind forecast point to output at 6.52GW, or a 33% load factor on 25 Sept, rising slightly on the day, before being at 46-58% load factors over the next two days – likely dropping costs further and leading to some negative hourly power prices.
  • French nuclear availability was stable on the day at 73% as of Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • Avg temperatures in Paris are anticipated to follow a similar trend as Berlin – dropping below the norm of about 13C on 27 September to reach as low as 9C on 29 Sept.