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POWER: German Nov Power Tracks Gas Gains

POWER
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The German November power base-load contract is trading higher with gains in natural gas prices and carbon allowances, with TTF gas jumping to the highest since 2 September. German spot prices are expected to rise with forecasts for lower wind and higher demand. 

  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 up 1% at 91.8 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.6% at 66.73 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 up 1.5% at 39.165 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month jumps to the highest since Sept. 2 driven by supply risks amid rising Middle East tensions while temperatures remain cool and pipeline supplies to Europe are still below normal.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is pulling higher today with gains in natural gas markets and lower renewables output in NW Europe. The EU ETS 2023 compliance deadline is today, with most entities expected to have already surrendered allowances for 2023. The next EU EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to ease slightly lower on the day but is expected to remain high at 22.97GW during base load. Solar PV output is forecast to decline to 11.44GW during peak load on Tuesday, down from 13.63GW forecasted for Monday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast to rise by 5.9GWh/h day on day on Tuesday according to Reuters.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast suggested mean temperatures in NW Europe have been revised higher from Friday’s forecast to remain below normal until 6 October before rising above the average. Mean temperatures are forecast between 10-15C during the period.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast at a maximum of 63.58GW on Monday and of 66GW on Tuesday, Entso-E data showed. 
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The German November power base-load contract is trading higher with gains in natural gas prices and carbon allowances, with TTF gas jumping to the highest since 2 September. German spot prices are expected to rise with forecasts for lower wind and higher demand. 

  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 up 1% at 91.8 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.6% at 66.73 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 up 1.5% at 39.165 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month jumps to the highest since Sept. 2 driven by supply risks amid rising Middle East tensions while temperatures remain cool and pipeline supplies to Europe are still below normal.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is pulling higher today with gains in natural gas markets and lower renewables output in NW Europe. The EU ETS 2023 compliance deadline is today, with most entities expected to have already surrendered allowances for 2023. The next EU EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to ease slightly lower on the day but is expected to remain high at 22.97GW during base load. Solar PV output is forecast to decline to 11.44GW during peak load on Tuesday, down from 13.63GW forecasted for Monday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast to rise by 5.9GWh/h day on day on Tuesday according to Reuters.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast suggested mean temperatures in NW Europe have been revised higher from Friday’s forecast to remain below normal until 6 October before rising above the average. Mean temperatures are forecast between 10-15C during the period.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast at a maximum of 63.58GW on Monday and of 66GW on Tuesday, Entso-E data showed.