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POWER: German Spot Power to Rebound

POWER
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German spot power prices are likely to increase on Friday with forecasts for lower renewables output and higher demand. German front-month power is edging lower amid a pullback in EU gas prices, despite forecasts pointing to cooler weather from mid-October. 

  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 0.5% at 85.24 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.1% at 62.51 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 0.8% at 38.315 EUR/MWh
  • TTF continues to ease back from the high of €40.545/MWh early yesterday as the market balances Middle East supply risks against current stable fundamentals amid relatively muted demand.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is trading rangebound with downside from lower EU gas prices and upside from cooler weather and more bullish funds positioning in Wednesday’s COT data. The latest EU EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to decline on the day to 8.31GW during base load on Friday, down from 13.41GW forecasted for Thursday. Solar PV output is also forecast to fall to 8.82GW during peak load on Friday, down from 9.6GW the day before according to SpotRenewables.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast showed temperatures have been revised lower at the end of the forecast period. Mean temperatures are forecast to remain below normal until 6 October, after which temperatures will rise above normal until 11 October, before rising back below the average. Mean temperatures are forecast between 9.6-15C during the period.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to recover on Friday to 60.5GW, up from 49.18GW forecasted for Thursday amid a public holiday, Ensto-E data showed. 
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German spot power prices are likely to increase on Friday with forecasts for lower renewables output and higher demand. German front-month power is edging lower amid a pullback in EU gas prices, despite forecasts pointing to cooler weather from mid-October. 

  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 0.5% at 85.24 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.1% at 62.51 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 0.8% at 38.315 EUR/MWh
  • TTF continues to ease back from the high of €40.545/MWh early yesterday as the market balances Middle East supply risks against current stable fundamentals amid relatively muted demand.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is trading rangebound with downside from lower EU gas prices and upside from cooler weather and more bullish funds positioning in Wednesday’s COT data. The latest EU EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to decline on the day to 8.31GW during base load on Friday, down from 13.41GW forecasted for Thursday. Solar PV output is also forecast to fall to 8.82GW during peak load on Friday, down from 9.6GW the day before according to SpotRenewables.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast showed temperatures have been revised lower at the end of the forecast period. Mean temperatures are forecast to remain below normal until 6 October, after which temperatures will rise above normal until 11 October, before rising back below the average. Mean temperatures are forecast between 9.6-15C during the period.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to recover on Friday to 60.5GW, up from 49.18GW forecasted for Thursday amid a public holiday, Ensto-E data showed.