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POWER: German Spot Power to Rise

POWER
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German spot power is expected to rise on Tuesday with forecasts for lower renewables output and higher demand. Further out, German front-month power is trading higher, shrugging off losses in the energy complex, with slightly cooler weather and a downward revision in wind forecasts. This is also sharply improving front-month clean spark spreads, rising to the highest since January. 

  • Germany Base Power DEC 24 up 3.2% at 108.17 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.3% at 67.79 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas DEC 24 down 1.7% at 45.75 EUR/MWh
  • German Spark Spreads M1  up 61% at -2.6555 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month has pulled back from a high of €47.49/MWh on Friday as Russian pipeline gas supplies to Europe continue at normal levels despite a cut in supplies to Austria’s OMV on Nov. 16.  Colder weather this week and strong storage withdrawals remain supportive.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is edging lower on the day with downward pressure from EU gas prices. The next EU EUA CAP3 auction will clear today at 11:00CET.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to fall on the day to 20.08GW during base-load hours on Tuesday. Solar PV output is also forecast to decrease on the day to 1.71GW during peak-load hours on Tuesday according to SpotRenewables. Wind output for the next nine days has been revised sharply lower.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise to 61.25GW on Tuesday, up from 59.45GW on Monday according to Bloomberg.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggested mean temperatures have been slightly revised down to remain below normal until 23 November before rising above the average.
  • Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast at 5.4C on Tuesday, slightly down from 5.6C on Monday and below the average of 6.4C.
  • RWE’s 1.05GW Neurath F lignite plant is scheduled to return on 18 November 20:20 CET after being offline since late on 16 November.
  • Germany’s hydrobalance has been revised down from Friday’s forecast to end at 307GWh on 2 December. 
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German spot power is expected to rise on Tuesday with forecasts for lower renewables output and higher demand. Further out, German front-month power is trading higher, shrugging off losses in the energy complex, with slightly cooler weather and a downward revision in wind forecasts. This is also sharply improving front-month clean spark spreads, rising to the highest since January. 

  • Germany Base Power DEC 24 up 3.2% at 108.17 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.3% at 67.79 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas DEC 24 down 1.7% at 45.75 EUR/MWh
  • German Spark Spreads M1  up 61% at -2.6555 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month has pulled back from a high of €47.49/MWh on Friday as Russian pipeline gas supplies to Europe continue at normal levels despite a cut in supplies to Austria’s OMV on Nov. 16.  Colder weather this week and strong storage withdrawals remain supportive.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is edging lower on the day with downward pressure from EU gas prices. The next EU EUA CAP3 auction will clear today at 11:00CET.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to fall on the day to 20.08GW during base-load hours on Tuesday. Solar PV output is also forecast to decrease on the day to 1.71GW during peak-load hours on Tuesday according to SpotRenewables. Wind output for the next nine days has been revised sharply lower.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise to 61.25GW on Tuesday, up from 59.45GW on Monday according to Bloomberg.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggested mean temperatures have been slightly revised down to remain below normal until 23 November before rising above the average.
  • Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast at 5.4C on Tuesday, slightly down from 5.6C on Monday and below the average of 6.4C.
  • RWE’s 1.05GW Neurath F lignite plant is scheduled to return on 18 November 20:20 CET after being offline since late on 16 November.
  • Germany’s hydrobalance has been revised down from Friday’s forecast to end at 307GWh on 2 December.