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POWER: Higher Demand, Outage Deters Negative Hourly German Day-Ahead Delivery

POWER
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The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts fell sharply on the day amid forecasts for around 45-54% load factors of wind, respectively, tomorrow. However, higher demand on the day and a 631MW outage at a German lignite plant kept hourly domestic delivery prices from clearing negative.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €55/MWh from €75.14/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €28.04/MWh from €42.32/MWh on the previous day.
  • The hourly prices in Germany reached as low as €12.08/MWh for hour 13-14 down from €18.78/MWh for the same hour in the previous session.
  • In comparison, hourly prices in France dropped between €0.08/MWh and €65/MWh.
  • German wind is expected at 29.09GW, or a 44% load factor on 26 Sept and will rise the next day to 47% load factor.  Wind will then drop over the weekend to be at 15-29% load factors – however, prices will likely still be weighed amid reduced power demand.
  • German power demand over 26-27 Sept has been mostly unchanged on the day, with demand forecasted between 54.15-55.07GW over the period compared to 54.5GW forecast for today. Wind will then drop over the weekend before rising on 30 Sept (Mon), ECMWF shows.
  • The 631MW Niederaubem G lignite unit will be offline over 26-28 Sept due to planned maintenance.
  • In France, wind forecast point to output at 10.72GW, or a 54% load factor on 26 Sept, with wind at a 47% load factor the next day – likely keeping gains somewhat limited on the day.
  • And France's nuclear reactors were stable on the day at around 73% of capacity on Wednesday, according to TSO RTE, cited by Bloomberg.

 

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The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts fell sharply on the day amid forecasts for around 45-54% load factors of wind, respectively, tomorrow. However, higher demand on the day and a 631MW outage at a German lignite plant kept hourly domestic delivery prices from clearing negative.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €55/MWh from €75.14/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €28.04/MWh from €42.32/MWh on the previous day.
  • The hourly prices in Germany reached as low as €12.08/MWh for hour 13-14 down from €18.78/MWh for the same hour in the previous session.
  • In comparison, hourly prices in France dropped between €0.08/MWh and €65/MWh.
  • German wind is expected at 29.09GW, or a 44% load factor on 26 Sept and will rise the next day to 47% load factor.  Wind will then drop over the weekend to be at 15-29% load factors – however, prices will likely still be weighed amid reduced power demand.
  • German power demand over 26-27 Sept has been mostly unchanged on the day, with demand forecasted between 54.15-55.07GW over the period compared to 54.5GW forecast for today. Wind will then drop over the weekend before rising on 30 Sept (Mon), ECMWF shows.
  • The 631MW Niederaubem G lignite unit will be offline over 26-28 Sept due to planned maintenance.
  • In France, wind forecast point to output at 10.72GW, or a 54% load factor on 26 Sept, with wind at a 47% load factor the next day – likely keeping gains somewhat limited on the day.
  • And France's nuclear reactors were stable on the day at around 73% of capacity on Wednesday, according to TSO RTE, cited by Bloomberg.