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POWER: Nodic December Falls as Stronger Hydro Balance, EU Losses Weigh

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The Nordic December is trading in red territory amid stronger forecasts of Sweden’s and Norway’s hydro balance. Losses in neighbouring EU countries also add further downward pressure. However, mean temperatures in the Nordics are expected to remain above the norm until 3 Dec before dipping below and entering negative territory till at least 7 Dec – which may support heating demand.

  • Nordic Base Power DEC 24 down 5.2% at 46.63 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power DEC 24 down 3.8% at 95.4 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power DEC 24 down 2.7% at 103.25 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 1.5% at 68.84 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas DEC 24 down 1% at 47.255 EUR/MWh
  • The unplanned 700MW curtailment at 1.4GW North Sea link between Norway’s NO2 bidding zone and the UK has been extended to 27 Nov 23:59 CET, latest Remit data show. This should essentially weigh down prices domestically in the Nordics as Norway is typically a net exporter.
  • Norway’s hydrological balance was revised up over 1-10 Dec by around 500-800GWh, with the balance expected to end at +6.90TWh on 10 Dec compared to +6.06TWh in the previous estimate.
  • Sweden’s balance is also expected to be slightly higher on the day and is now anticipated at +3.04TWh on 10 Dec from +2.86TWh previously estimated for the same day.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics are expected above the 30-year norm for most days over 26 Nov-3 Dec, ECMWF forecasts show but will dip below over 4-7 Dec at between minus 0.31C and minus 2.8C – possibly increasing heating demand.
  • Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at around 88% capacity on Tuesday morning, edging up from 85% on Monday, according to Bloomberg.
  • Norwegian wind is anticipated at just 0.478GW, or a 9% load factor, on 27 Nov (Wed), sharply down from forecasts anticipated today – which could support power prices from the previous session.
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The Nordic December is trading in red territory amid stronger forecasts of Sweden’s and Norway’s hydro balance. Losses in neighbouring EU countries also add further downward pressure. However, mean temperatures in the Nordics are expected to remain above the norm until 3 Dec before dipping below and entering negative territory till at least 7 Dec – which may support heating demand.

  • Nordic Base Power DEC 24 down 5.2% at 46.63 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power DEC 24 down 3.8% at 95.4 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power DEC 24 down 2.7% at 103.25 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 1.5% at 68.84 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas DEC 24 down 1% at 47.255 EUR/MWh
  • The unplanned 700MW curtailment at 1.4GW North Sea link between Norway’s NO2 bidding zone and the UK has been extended to 27 Nov 23:59 CET, latest Remit data show. This should essentially weigh down prices domestically in the Nordics as Norway is typically a net exporter.
  • Norway’s hydrological balance was revised up over 1-10 Dec by around 500-800GWh, with the balance expected to end at +6.90TWh on 10 Dec compared to +6.06TWh in the previous estimate.
  • Sweden’s balance is also expected to be slightly higher on the day and is now anticipated at +3.04TWh on 10 Dec from +2.86TWh previously estimated for the same day.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics are expected above the 30-year norm for most days over 26 Nov-3 Dec, ECMWF forecasts show but will dip below over 4-7 Dec at between minus 0.31C and minus 2.8C – possibly increasing heating demand.
  • Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at around 88% capacity on Tuesday morning, edging up from 85% on Monday, according to Bloomberg.
  • Norwegian wind is anticipated at just 0.478GW, or a 9% load factor, on 27 Nov (Wed), sharply down from forecasts anticipated today – which could support power prices from the previous session.