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POWER: Nordic Dec, 1Q25 Diverge From TTF, EU Power Amid Drier Outlook

POWER
CEEMEAEnergy BulletsPower BulletsBulletNorwayCommodities

 The Nordic December and 1Q25 are already in green amid a strong downward revision of Sweden’s and Norway’s hydro balances. However, temperatures throughout the 6–10 day ECMWF forecasts are relatively in line with the seasonal average, with losses in TTF and EU power potentially also weighing down the curve and capping gains.

  • Nordic Base Power DEC 24 up 0.5% at 47 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power DEC 24 down 2.6% at 94.96 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power DEC 24 down 2.6% at 101.15 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 1.1% at 68.47 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas DEC 24 down 2.4% at 46.1 EUR/MWh
  • Planned testing at the 1.1GW Forsmark unit 1 started in the early morning today, with the unit currently running at around 830MW of capacity. The unit is expected to drop to as low as 704MW and will be at this level until 27 Nov 17:00 CET, latest Remit data show.
  • And the unplanned 700MW curtailment at 1.4GW North Sea link between Norway’s NO2 bidding zone and the UK has been extended again to 28 Nov 23:59 CET.
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised down around 1 TWh/d over 10-11 Dec and is now expected to end at +5.97TWh on 11 Dec compared to +7.22TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • Sweden’s balance is also expected to fall, with the balance at +3.09TWh on 11 Dec – revised down from +3.47TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • But average temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to reach as high as 3.54C on 27 Nov – towards the higher end of the ECMWF forecasts – before beginning to decline slightly and flipping below over 4-5 Dec. Temps will then climb back above to be between 0.4-1.3C over 6-8 Dec.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at around 0.708GW on 28 Nov – up from forecasts for today – which could weigh on delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 88% capacity on Wednesday morning, unchanged from Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. 10 of 11 units are still online.
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 The Nordic December and 1Q25 are already in green amid a strong downward revision of Sweden’s and Norway’s hydro balances. However, temperatures throughout the 6–10 day ECMWF forecasts are relatively in line with the seasonal average, with losses in TTF and EU power potentially also weighing down the curve and capping gains.

  • Nordic Base Power DEC 24 up 0.5% at 47 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power DEC 24 down 2.6% at 94.96 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power DEC 24 down 2.6% at 101.15 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 1.1% at 68.47 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas DEC 24 down 2.4% at 46.1 EUR/MWh
  • Planned testing at the 1.1GW Forsmark unit 1 started in the early morning today, with the unit currently running at around 830MW of capacity. The unit is expected to drop to as low as 704MW and will be at this level until 27 Nov 17:00 CET, latest Remit data show.
  • And the unplanned 700MW curtailment at 1.4GW North Sea link between Norway’s NO2 bidding zone and the UK has been extended again to 28 Nov 23:59 CET.
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised down around 1 TWh/d over 10-11 Dec and is now expected to end at +5.97TWh on 11 Dec compared to +7.22TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • Sweden’s balance is also expected to fall, with the balance at +3.09TWh on 11 Dec – revised down from +3.47TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • But average temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to reach as high as 3.54C on 27 Nov – towards the higher end of the ECMWF forecasts – before beginning to decline slightly and flipping below over 4-5 Dec. Temps will then climb back above to be between 0.4-1.3C over 6-8 Dec.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at around 0.708GW on 28 Nov – up from forecasts for today – which could weigh on delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 88% capacity on Wednesday morning, unchanged from Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. 10 of 11 units are still online.