September 26, 2024 07:29 GMT
POWER: Nordic Forward Curve Climbs on Drier Outlook
POWER
The Nordic forward curve has been pushed by a halving of Norway’s and Sweden’s hydro balance on the day, with October leading gains, and as temperatures are still set to plummet below the seasonal norm. However, losses in the German power and TTF could limit gains.
- Nordic Base Power OCT 24 up 10.3% at 28.5 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power OCT 24 down 1% at 78.8 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 24 down 0.5% at 64.89 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas OCT 24 down 0.9% at 37 EUR/MWh
- Statnett has notified Norway’s NVE it will investigate the reinvestment of power cables between Denmark and Norway, it said.
- Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised down sharply over 1-10 October, ending at +1.23TWh on 10 October compared to +2.71TWh in the previous forecasts.
- Sweden’s balance is anticipated at just +674GWh on 10 Oct compared to +1.35TWh in the previous forecast for the same day. And Finland’s is now expected to still be negative after having been forecast to flip positive.
- Nordic hydropower reserves declined for the first time since week 17 last week (week 38), with stocks at 81.2% of capacity, or 103.03TWh amid a sharp on-week fall in precipitation, with higher demand also contributing to the loss.
- Average temperatures in the Nordics will be below the 30-year norm starting from 28 Sept, with temps between 7.8-9.4C over 28 Sept- 5 Oct. Minimum temps are seen as low as 4C over 29-30 Sept.
- Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 72% capacity on Thursday, unchanged on the day, with 8 of 11 units still online, according to Bloomberg.
- The 890MW OL2 nuclear unit is still expected to return on 6 Oct, with the Loviisa back online on 4 Oct, latest Remit data show.
- Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 16% load factor, or 0.835GW on 27 September – firm on the day – wind is then anticipated at a 28% load factor – which could drop costs sharply amid reduced demand.
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