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POWER: Nordic Forward Curve Could Be Range Bound On Mixed Fundamentals

POWER
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The Nordic forward curve could be range-bound today amid only slightly stronger forecasts for Sweden’s and Norway’s hydro balance, with temperatures now set to drop below the seasonal average over 4-6 Dec and into negative territory – likely supporting heating demand. Losses in TTF could also weigh down the curve, while German power is currently trading upward, adding some support.

  • Nordic Base Power DEC 24 up 0.5% at 47.4 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power DEC 24 down 1.7% at 95.9 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power DEC 24 up 1.4% at 102.94 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 unchanged at 68.47 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas DEC 24 down 0.5% at 46.525 EUR/MWh
  • The unplanned 760MW curtailment on 1.44GW NordLink between Norway-German has been extended to 29 Nov 23:59 CET, Latest remit data show.
  • The planned work on the 1.2GW FI-SE3 power link is expected to end on 29 Nov at 18:00 CET, with capacity in both directions lowered between 0-1.2GW until then.
  • Vattenfall’s 1.1GW Forsmark unit 1 is running at around 847MW of capacity, latest data from Vattenfall show. The unit was curtailed due to planned testing that was meant to last until 27 Nov 20:30 CET.
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has only been revised up by 200GWh on 12 Dec and is now expected to end at +6.53TWh on that day compared to +6.35TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • Sweden’s balance is also expected to slightly rise, with the balance at +2.86TWh on 12 Dec – revised up from +2.72TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • Nordic hydropower reserves continued downward from the previous week to be at 83.2% capacity, or 105.67TWh by the end of week 47. The decline was driven by much higher power demand and a sharp drop in Finnish nuclear output amid unplanned outages over the week, which offset a strong increase in precipitation.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to begin falling from 1 Dec and drop as low as between minus 1.24C and minus 2.19C over 4-6 Dec – which could support heating demand.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at around 1.06GW on 29 Nov – up from forecasts for today – which could weigh on delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 86% capacity on Thursday morning, down from 88% on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg. 10 of 11 units are still online.
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The Nordic forward curve could be range-bound today amid only slightly stronger forecasts for Sweden’s and Norway’s hydro balance, with temperatures now set to drop below the seasonal average over 4-6 Dec and into negative territory – likely supporting heating demand. Losses in TTF could also weigh down the curve, while German power is currently trading upward, adding some support.

  • Nordic Base Power DEC 24 up 0.5% at 47.4 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power DEC 24 down 1.7% at 95.9 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power DEC 24 up 1.4% at 102.94 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 unchanged at 68.47 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas DEC 24 down 0.5% at 46.525 EUR/MWh
  • The unplanned 760MW curtailment on 1.44GW NordLink between Norway-German has been extended to 29 Nov 23:59 CET, Latest remit data show.
  • The planned work on the 1.2GW FI-SE3 power link is expected to end on 29 Nov at 18:00 CET, with capacity in both directions lowered between 0-1.2GW until then.
  • Vattenfall’s 1.1GW Forsmark unit 1 is running at around 847MW of capacity, latest data from Vattenfall show. The unit was curtailed due to planned testing that was meant to last until 27 Nov 20:30 CET.
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has only been revised up by 200GWh on 12 Dec and is now expected to end at +6.53TWh on that day compared to +6.35TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • Sweden’s balance is also expected to slightly rise, with the balance at +2.86TWh on 12 Dec – revised up from +2.72TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • Nordic hydropower reserves continued downward from the previous week to be at 83.2% capacity, or 105.67TWh by the end of week 47. The decline was driven by much higher power demand and a sharp drop in Finnish nuclear output amid unplanned outages over the week, which offset a strong increase in precipitation.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to begin falling from 1 Dec and drop as low as between minus 1.24C and minus 2.19C over 4-6 Dec – which could support heating demand.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at around 1.06GW on 29 Nov – up from forecasts for today – which could weigh on delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 86% capacity on Thursday morning, down from 88% on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg. 10 of 11 units are still online.