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POWER: Nordic Forward Curve Trades Red but Losses Could Be Limited Due to Outages

POWER
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The Nordic forward curve is in red territory weighed on by European gas and emissions costs – dropping prices in neighbouring EU markets – with temperature forecasts still suggesting a flip above normal heading into next week. However, an unplanned outage occurred at the 507MW Loviisa 2, while the work at the 1.6GW OL3 was extended by 11 hours – which could limit losses.

  • Nordic Base Power DEC 24 down 7.3% at 51.7 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power DEC 24 down 0.5% at 103 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power DEC 24 up 0.4% at 110.9 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.5% at 69.19 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas DEC 24 down 0.6% at 46.635 EUR/MWh
  • TVO shut down the 507MW Loviisa 2 nuclear reactor in an unplanned outage on 18 Nov 19:55CET due to technical problems on the reactor side, with the unit offline until 21 Nov 20:00 CET, remit data showed
  • And the 1.6GW OL3 nuclear unit is expected to return to the grid on 20 Nov at 11:00 CET – 11 hours later than previously planned.
  • But Norway’s hydrological balance was revised up on 3 Dec by around 450GWh and is expected to end +4.02TWh on that day, up from +3.57TWh in the previous forecast for the same period.
  • Sweden’s balance is expected slightly higher on the day and is now anticipated at +2.44TWh on 3 Dec from +2.14TWh previously estimated for the same day.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics are still expected to flip above the norm from 25 Nov and reach as high as 4.7-5.7C over 25-26 Nov before dropping slightly over 27-30 Nov, albeit, remaining above the norm.
  • Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 69% capacity on Tuesday morning, dropping from 74% on Monday, with 8 of 11 units now online, according to Bloomberg.
  • Norwegian wind is anticipated at just 0.487GW on 20 Nov, or a 9% load factor, sharply down from 0.719GW anticipated today – which could support power prices from the previous session – coupled with lower nuclear.
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The Nordic forward curve is in red territory weighed on by European gas and emissions costs – dropping prices in neighbouring EU markets – with temperature forecasts still suggesting a flip above normal heading into next week. However, an unplanned outage occurred at the 507MW Loviisa 2, while the work at the 1.6GW OL3 was extended by 11 hours – which could limit losses.

  • Nordic Base Power DEC 24 down 7.3% at 51.7 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power DEC 24 down 0.5% at 103 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power DEC 24 up 0.4% at 110.9 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.5% at 69.19 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas DEC 24 down 0.6% at 46.635 EUR/MWh
  • TVO shut down the 507MW Loviisa 2 nuclear reactor in an unplanned outage on 18 Nov 19:55CET due to technical problems on the reactor side, with the unit offline until 21 Nov 20:00 CET, remit data showed
  • And the 1.6GW OL3 nuclear unit is expected to return to the grid on 20 Nov at 11:00 CET – 11 hours later than previously planned.
  • But Norway’s hydrological balance was revised up on 3 Dec by around 450GWh and is expected to end +4.02TWh on that day, up from +3.57TWh in the previous forecast for the same period.
  • Sweden’s balance is expected slightly higher on the day and is now anticipated at +2.44TWh on 3 Dec from +2.14TWh previously estimated for the same day.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics are still expected to flip above the norm from 25 Nov and reach as high as 4.7-5.7C over 25-26 Nov before dropping slightly over 27-30 Nov, albeit, remaining above the norm.
  • Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 69% capacity on Tuesday morning, dropping from 74% on Monday, with 8 of 11 units now online, according to Bloomberg.
  • Norwegian wind is anticipated at just 0.487GW on 20 Nov, or a 9% load factor, sharply down from 0.719GW anticipated today – which could support power prices from the previous session – coupled with lower nuclear.