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POWER: Nordic Hydro Stocks Continue Downard on Outages, Demand

POWER
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Nordic hydropower reserves continued downward from the previous week to be at 83.2% capacity, or 105.67TWh by the end of week 47. The decline was driven by much higher power demand and a sharp drop in Finnish nuclear output amid unplanned outages over the week, which offset a strong increase in precipitation.

  • Stocks dropped by 2.2 points on the week compared to a 0.2-point fall in week 46. This is the second week in a row reserves have fallen.
  • Despite the fall, stocks continued to widen their on-year surplus to 10.3 points from 9.9 points in the previous session – a fresh yearly high
  • Precipitation in the Nordic region rose sharply on the week to a total of 19.24mm from 5.45mm in week 46 and from 2.02mm in week 45. But slightly below the seasonal average of about 21mm.
  • But a sharp rise in demand kept on-week gains subdued, with Norwegian demand averaging about 19.33GW in week 47 from 16.91GW the week prior and higher than 16.36GW in week 45. Swedish demand averaged around 18.63GW from 15.92GW in week 46.
  • And Swedish nuclear generation edged up on the week to around 5.71GW from 5.66GW the week prior, while Finnish generation moved down sharply to 2.96GW from 3.89GW in week 46 due to unplanned works at the 1.6GW OL3 and 507MW Loviisa 2 reactors.
  • However, hydro levels are at a 4.8-point surplus to the 19-year average from 5.8 points in the previous week.
  • Swedish reserves moved downward to be at 85.2% capacity from 86.9% of capacity in week 46 – dropping from their 2024 high –, with Norwegian reserves dropping to 84% from 86.4% in week 46.
  • And Finnish hydro stocks fell to 58.2% of capacity from 59.8% the week prior and much lower than the same week last year at 73.4%.
  • Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF suggests Norway’s and Sweden’s hydrological balance to end at +6.75TWh and +3.37TWh, respectively, on 11 Dec compared to +5.99TWh and +3.16TWh in the previous forecasts for the same day.
  • And precipitation in the region will be below the norm over 28 Nov-1 Dec– possibly weighing on Nordic hydro stocks – but will flip back above 2-6 Dec to be between 2.7-5.4mm.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to reach as high as 3.54C on 27 Nov – towards the higher end of the ECMWF forecasts – before beginning to decline slightly and flipping below over 4-5 Dec. Temps will then climb back above to be between 0.4-1.3C over 6-8 Dec.







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Nordic hydropower reserves continued downward from the previous week to be at 83.2% capacity, or 105.67TWh by the end of week 47. The decline was driven by much higher power demand and a sharp drop in Finnish nuclear output amid unplanned outages over the week, which offset a strong increase in precipitation.

  • Stocks dropped by 2.2 points on the week compared to a 0.2-point fall in week 46. This is the second week in a row reserves have fallen.
  • Despite the fall, stocks continued to widen their on-year surplus to 10.3 points from 9.9 points in the previous session – a fresh yearly high
  • Precipitation in the Nordic region rose sharply on the week to a total of 19.24mm from 5.45mm in week 46 and from 2.02mm in week 45. But slightly below the seasonal average of about 21mm.
  • But a sharp rise in demand kept on-week gains subdued, with Norwegian demand averaging about 19.33GW in week 47 from 16.91GW the week prior and higher than 16.36GW in week 45. Swedish demand averaged around 18.63GW from 15.92GW in week 46.
  • And Swedish nuclear generation edged up on the week to around 5.71GW from 5.66GW the week prior, while Finnish generation moved down sharply to 2.96GW from 3.89GW in week 46 due to unplanned works at the 1.6GW OL3 and 507MW Loviisa 2 reactors.
  • However, hydro levels are at a 4.8-point surplus to the 19-year average from 5.8 points in the previous week.
  • Swedish reserves moved downward to be at 85.2% capacity from 86.9% of capacity in week 46 – dropping from their 2024 high –, with Norwegian reserves dropping to 84% from 86.4% in week 46.
  • And Finnish hydro stocks fell to 58.2% of capacity from 59.8% the week prior and much lower than the same week last year at 73.4%.
  • Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF suggests Norway’s and Sweden’s hydrological balance to end at +6.75TWh and +3.37TWh, respectively, on 11 Dec compared to +5.99TWh and +3.16TWh in the previous forecasts for the same day.
  • And precipitation in the region will be below the norm over 28 Nov-1 Dec– possibly weighing on Nordic hydro stocks – but will flip back above 2-6 Dec to be between 2.7-5.4mm.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to reach as high as 3.54C on 27 Nov – towards the higher end of the ECMWF forecasts – before beginning to decline slightly and flipping below over 4-5 Dec. Temps will then climb back above to be between 0.4-1.3C over 6-8 Dec.