POWER
Nordic hydropower reserves slowed their decline from the previous week to be at 82.5% capacity, or 104.68TWh by the end of week 48. The slower fall was driven by a sharp increase in Finnish nuclear generation, with demand in Norway and Sweden dropping. Precipitation only edged down slightly but was down compared to seasonal average.
- Stocks dropped by 0.7 points on the week compared to a 2.2-point fall in week 47. This is the third week in a row that reserves have fallen.
- Despite the fall, stocks remained at a strong surplus on the year, widening to 13.1 points from 10.3 points and 9.9 points in the previous weeks – another fresh yearly high
- Precipitation in the Nordic region remained firm on the week to a total of 19.16mm from 19.24mm in week 47. But slightly below the seasonal average of about 21mm.
- But a fall in demand kept on-week losses somewhat subdued, with Norwegian demand averaging about 17.92GW in week 48 from 19.33GW in week 47. Swedish demand averaged around 16.82GW from 18.63GW in week 47.
- And Swedish nuclear generation remained firm on the week at around 5.66GW from 5.71GW the week prior, with Finnish generation increasing sharply to 4.16GW from 2.96GW in week 47 as unplanned works at the 1.6GW OL3 and 507MW Loviisa 2 reactors ended from the previous week.
- Hydro levels are at a 5.4-point surplus to the 19-year average from 4.8 points in the previous week.
- Swedish reserves moved downward to be at 84.2% capacity from 85.2% of capacity in week 47, with Norwegian reserves dropping to 83.2% from 84% in week 47.
- And Finnish hydro stocks diverged to increase to 59.8% of capacity from 58.2% the week prior but still much lower than the same week last year at 71.9%.
- Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF suggests Norway’s and Sweden’s hydrological balance to end at +5.73TWh and +2.58TWh, respectively, on 18 Dec compared to +5.04TWh and +2.17TWh in the previous forecasts for the same day.
- But precipitation in the region will be below the norm for most days over the 6-10 Day ECMWF forecasts, only slightly ticking above on 8 December – possibly weighing on stocks.
However, average temperatures in the Nordics are now expected to relatively align with the 30-year norm across the 6–10-day ECMWF forecasts. However, temps will be below the seasonal average until 6 December.
382 words