POWER: Nordic Power to Rise on Drier Outlook

 The Nordic 1Q25 power base-load contract is edging higher with gains in the German market. Nordic front-month power is also likely to be supported, once it has traded, with a downward revision in Sweden’s and Norway’s hydrobalances and forecasts for drier weather. 

• Nordic Base Power NOV 24 closed down 0.3% at 44.75 EUR/MWh on 11 Oct.
• Nordic Base Power 1Q25 up 1.1% at 59 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power NOV 24 up 1% at 89.75 EUR/MWh
• TTF Gas NOV 24 down 0.6% at 39.63 EUR/MWh
• Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised down from Friday and will remain in negative territory until 18 October before rising back into positive territory to reach 1.17TWh on 28 October.
• Sweden’s hydrobalance has also been revised down from Friday to reach now 1.03TWh on 28 October.
• The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast suggested precipitation in the Nordics will remain below the seasonal average throughout the forecast period. Mean temperatures in the Nordics will rise above normal from 16 October to remain above normal until at least 24 October.
• Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 85% of capacity on Friday, up from 82% on Thursday, according to Bloomberg.
• Wind output in Norway is forecast to decline on the day to 722MW during base load on Tuesday. Wind output is forecast to be broadly stable through Saturday according to SpotRenewables.