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POWER: Nordic Power to Rise on Gas, Drier Outlook

POWER
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Nordic front-month power futures are likely to be supported today, once trading, with a downward revision in Norway’s hydrobalance, precipitation below normal for the start of October and gains in European natural gas prices. Nordic front-month power closed at the highest since 26 July on Friday. 

  • Nordic Base Power OCT 24 closed up 2.8% at 29.3 EUR/MWh on 27 September.
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 up 1.2% at 92 EUR/MWh
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 up 1.8% at 39.275 EUR/MWh
  • Nordic nuclear availability edged down to 72% of capacity as of Monday, down from 73% on Friday, with eight out of eleven reactors online according to Bloomberg.
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised lower for most of October and is expected to flip into negative territory on 1 October. The balance is expected at -1.12TWh on 14 October.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance has been revised upward at the beginning of the forecast and downward at the end of the forecast to decline to +318GWh as of 14 October, from +925GWh currently.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF forecast suggested mean temperatures in the Nordics will remain below normal until 6 October before rising above normal.
  • Precipitation in the Nordics is forecast to remain below normal until 6 October, after which rainfall is forecast to rise slightly above the average.
  • Wind output in Norway is forecast at 936MW on Tuesday during base load, equivalent to a 18% load factor according to SpotRenewables.
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Nordic front-month power futures are likely to be supported today, once trading, with a downward revision in Norway’s hydrobalance, precipitation below normal for the start of October and gains in European natural gas prices. Nordic front-month power closed at the highest since 26 July on Friday. 

  • Nordic Base Power OCT 24 closed up 2.8% at 29.3 EUR/MWh on 27 September.
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 up 1.2% at 92 EUR/MWh
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 up 1.8% at 39.275 EUR/MWh
  • Nordic nuclear availability edged down to 72% of capacity as of Monday, down from 73% on Friday, with eight out of eleven reactors online according to Bloomberg.
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised lower for most of October and is expected to flip into negative territory on 1 October. The balance is expected at -1.12TWh on 14 October.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance has been revised upward at the beginning of the forecast and downward at the end of the forecast to decline to +318GWh as of 14 October, from +925GWh currently.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF forecast suggested mean temperatures in the Nordics will remain below normal until 6 October before rising above normal.
  • Precipitation in the Nordics is forecast to remain below normal until 6 October, after which rainfall is forecast to rise slightly above the average.
  • Wind output in Norway is forecast at 936MW on Tuesday during base load, equivalent to a 18% load factor according to SpotRenewables.