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The incumbent centre-right People's Party (PP) continues to command a comfortable lead in opinion polls a week before Spain's capital, Madrid, goes to the polls in regional elections. While the PP, led in the region by firebrand conservative Isabel Diaz Ayuso, is set to win a plurality, it will likely require the support of the right-wing nationalist VOX party to reach a majority in the Assembly of Madrid.

Chart 1. Opinion Polling for Madrilenian Regional Election, % and Trendline

Source: NC Report, Electopanel, Top Position, SyM Consulting, Sociometrica, Hamalgama Metrica, Sigma Dos, Demoscopia, Celeste-Tel, GAD3, MNI

  • Should the polls be reflected in the final tally, likely resulting in a PP-VOX regional gov't (or a minority PP gov't supported by VOX in a confidence and supply agreement) it would come as a blow to the centre-left federal gov't of PM Pedro Sanchez, whose PSOE had been hoping to lead a coalition alongside Unidas Podemos and Mas Madrid after the election.
  • The head of the leftist UP Pablo Iglesias, stepped down as one of Spain's deputy PMs to run for Madrid regional president in order to try to boost his party's flagging support in the capital, but this appears to have had little impact on polls.
  • The tone of the campaign has become increasingly toxic, with Diaz Ayuso using the slogan 'Communism or Freedom', sparking Iglesias and UP to retort with their own slogan of 'Fascism or Democracy'. Calling opponents fascists or communists remains a highly-charged act in Spain, less than 50 years since the end of the Franco regime.