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PPI Eyed As Follow-Up From CPI Shock

US TSYS SUMMARY

Tsy losses have slowed in overnight post-CPI trade Thursday, but respite looks to have been fleeting. Jun TYs have stabilized but briefly pierced through Wednesday's low (131-28) in European trade: last down 1.5/32 at 131-28 (L: 131-27 / H: 132-03). Elevated volumes (~385k).

  • Attention is on PPI/jobless claims data and 30-Yr supply later.
  • A bit of curve flattening in Asia-Pac trade has since reversed: the 2-Yr yield is unchanged at 0.1629%, 5-Yr is up 0.3bps at 0.866%, 10-Yr is up 1bps at 1.7018%, and 30-Yr is up 0.4bps at 2.4153%.
  • Attention firmly on data (PPI and jobless claims) at 0830ET. It doesn't appear there was any revision in PPI estimates for Apr (+0.3% M/M headline; +0.4% ex-food and energy) in the wake of Wednesday's upside CPI surprise.
  • Another decent Fed speaker slate today, where opinions on inflation will be in demand: Richmond Fed's Barkin at 1000ET; Gov Waller at 1300ET; St Louis' Bullard at 1600ET.
  • In supply, we get $80B in 4-/8-week bill auctions at 1130ET, and $27B 30-Yr Tsy bond at 1300ET. Of potential note is the NY Fed's forward purchase schedule update at 1500ET, where we could see a potential tweak of buying allocations.

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