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PPI Inflation Rises 14.8% in August

HUNGARY
  • This morning, economic data showed that Hungarian PPI rose 14.8% YoY in August, up from 11.6% the previous month, the fastest pace since January 1998.•
  • Yesterday, we saw that manufacturing PMI ticked slightly higher in August to 55.9, up from 55.6 the previous month. Second Q2 GDP estimate was steady at 17.9% YoY (2.7% QoQ).
  • Momentum on HUF remains firm again major crosses amid hawkish NBH; traders keep chasing the monetary policy divergence.
  • EURHUF fell below its 348 support this morning and is gradually approaching its ST key support at 345; a break below that level would open the door for a move down to 343 (June 2020 low). On the topside, first resistance stands at 350, followed by 354 (50D and 100DMA).
  • Sell-side analysts now forecast EUHUF to trade slightly above 350 by year-end, which is significantly below the key resistance at 370 (see forecasts below).
  • Hungary 10y yield has been trending higher this week (following Poland LT bond yield trend), currently trading above the key 3% level; next key resistance to watch on the topside stands at 3.22% (May 18 high). On the downside, first support stands at 2.92%, followed by 2.84% (50D and 100DMA).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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