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PPI Remains In Deflation But Energy Base Effects Wane

GERMAN DATA

German Producer Prices for January came in above expectations at -4.4% Y/Y (vs -6.6% cons; -5.1% prior, revised from -8.6%) and +0.2% M/M (vs +0.1% cons; -0.8% prior, revised from -1.2%).

  • A weightings update, particularly of subcategories within the energy category, now based on 2021 data, accounted for the Y/Y series being revised upwards for most months of 2023. Especially the energy base effects driving the series deeply into negative territory appear to be lower after the revision.
  • Looking at the individual categories, intermediate goods deflated by -3.7% Y/Y (vs -2.8% prior), suggesting further incoming disinflation for consumer goods. Investment, durable, non-durable, and consumption goods all printed their lowest increase since 2021, the start of the updated series, at +3.0%, +1.6,%, +1.1%, +1.1%, respectively (vs priors at +4.1%, +3.2%, +2.8%, +2.9%).
  • Energy base effects continued to taper off, with the category deflating -11.7% Y/Y (vs -15.1% prior).

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