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Pre-FOMC Minutes FedSpeak – May 2023: Some See A Hike (1/2)

FED

We've updated our Fed Hawk-Dove matrix and compiled the most recent communications by FOMC participants ahead of tomorrow's May minutes release.

See here for full PDF:

FOMCFedSpeakMay2023.pdf

  • Some FOMC participants are leaning toward at least one further increase in the Funds rate. Most likely to support a hike in June – based on post-May FOMC commentary - are Bullard and Logan.
  • Those who also appear to be supporting further hikes (either in June or beyond) are Kashkari, Bowman, and Mester, while Waller is probably on that list based on his pre-May FOMC stance.
  • Those who lean more dovish and are content to wait for the “lags” of previous tightening to take hold (in combination with credit tightening) include Bostic, Daly, Goolsbee, Harker, Jefferson, and Williams.
  • There are a few that seem persuadable in either direction, depending on the data: Powell is the most prominent. Others include Barkin, Collins, and Cook. (Barr would probably just go along with consensus.)
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