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Pre-FOMC Tsy Update

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are still maintaining a narrow session range in the leadup to the FOMC policy announcement at the top of the hour. Back near pre-NY open highs: Jun'24 10Y trading 110-09 (+4.5) vs. 110-10 high at the moment, curves mildly flatter (2s10s -.304 at -39.782).
  • Little change from this morning, projected rate cut pricing steady to mildly higher in June/July: March 2024 chance of 25bp rate cut currently -0.8% w/ cumulative of -0.02bp at 5.328%; May 2024 at -10.3% w/ cumulative -2.8bp at 5.302%; June 2024 -59.6% vs. -56.0% late Tuesday w/ cumulative cut -17.7bp at 5.153%. July'24 cumulative -28.2bp at 5.048%.
  • The FOMC will hold rates at the presumed peak of 5.25-5.50% at its March 19-20 meeting, while reiterating its cut leaning forward guidance (“The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent”).
  • Immediate focus will be on the quarterly summary of economic projections (SEP).
  • Current cross-asset roundup: stocks mildly weaker (S&P Eminis -4.25 at 5237.5), oil weaker (WTI -1.84 at 81.63), Gold near steady at 2156.98 (-.61).
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